Warren Buffett Was Right Again, Here’s What He’s Doing Next

Warren Buffett won again. 

At just 94 years young, his track record in trading the market is the kind of stuff legends are made of. Trust me, there’s a good reason why Buffett has successfully amassed a personal fortune in excess of $165 billion dollars today.

Despite his exceptional trading history, Buffett was still heavily criticized for Berkshire building up an enormous cash position of $334 billion. 

Some in the market lambasted his decision to sit his cash on the sidelines, others heeded his warning and probably got a little FOMO after watching the S&P 500 reach an all-time high in February, 2025.

The veteran members of our investment community here know full well that Buffett has had an 83-year love affair with oil stocks. After all, it was the very first trade he made when he was 11 years old — and the one lesson he learned from that trade was to not sell too early. 

On his very first trade — three shares of Cities Service — the world’s greatest investor made a lousy 5%. But as fate would have it, his first oil stock rebranded to CITGO in 1965, a well-known company that was acquired by Occidental Petroleum in 1983. 

So, when it came time to choose an oil stock to buy in 2019, Buffett went with what he knew. Berkshire started off by acquiring $10 billion in Occidental’s preferred shares. In 2022, Buffett’s company continued building its position, and then scooped up even more in 2024. 

Then in February, 2025, while he had $334 billion in cash sitting on the sidelines, Berkshire actually increased its stake in Occidental; Buffett now controls 28.3% of the oil company.  

You read that correctly. Even though the S&P 500 was breaking into all-time highs and it was clear that Warren Buffett feared a market collapse was coming, he couldn’t help but buy more oil stocks. 

And he was right again. 

Look, we know that his fears over tariffs and a potential recession turned from nightmare to reality after the Trump administration followed through on his threat to exact tariffs on EVERYONE, even if its tariff calculations were nonsensical. 

Meanwhile, WTI crude prices have absolutely plummeted, dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time in a long while. 

But let me tell you another trading axiom from the Book of Buffett: Bad news is an investor’s best friend.

All you have to do is figure out where he’s going next.

Buffett’s Next Move?

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to do a deep dive into why oil is so grossly oversold right now that every investor should be on a veritable shopping spree in the energy sector. 

But what if I told you there was a little corner of the oil sector where companies were not only flush with cash and trading at incredibly attractive metrics, they’re also completely immune to President Trump’s tariffs. 

That’s a recipe that investors like Warren Buffett won’t be able to pass up — nor should they.

Take a closer look at the White House's fact sheet on the latest round of tariffs that led to a resounding market crash. 

Did you see it? 

Let me show you:

For Canada and Mexico, the existing fentanyl/migration IEEPA orders remain in effect, and are unaffected by this order. This means USMCA compliant goods will continue to see a 0% tariff, non-USMCA compliant goods will see a 25% tariff, and non-USMCA compliant energy and potash will see a 10% tariff. In the event the existing fentanyl/migration IEEPA orders are terminated, USMCA compliant goods would continue to receive preferential treatment, while non-USMCA compliant goods would be subject to a 12% reciprocal tariff.

This has opened the door wide open for Canadian oil. If you’re asking yourself why Canadian crude is immune to Trump’s tariffs, it’s because those imports are USMCA compliant. 

Here’s why…

Whether crude oil is considered USMCA non-compliant depends on its origin and how it meets the rules of origin outlined in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The USMCA, which replaced NAFTA in July 2020, governs trade between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, and includes specific provisions for energy products like crude oil.

Under the USMCA, crude oil can qualify as "originating" (and thus compliant) if it is wholly obtained or produced within the USMCA region — meaning it is extracted, processed, and transported without significant non-USMCA content. 

The key provision for crude oil can be found in Chapter 27 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTSUS), which allows up to 40% of diluent (a substance added to facilitate pipeline transport) to originate from outside the USMCA region without affecting its duty-free status. 

This makes this particularly relevant for Canadian heavy crude oil, which often requires diluent. As long as the diluent does not exceed 40% by volume and the oil itself is sourced from Canada, the U.S., or Mexico, it typically qualifies as USMCA-compliant.

For the record, we’re talking about A LOT of crude. Despite all the concerns over tariffs, the U.S. is still thirstier than ever for Canadian crude. 

Our Canadian oil imports are just shy of 5 million barrels per day currently:

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Most crude oil traded between the U.S. and Canada meets these criteria because it is extracted and primarily processed within North America. For example, Alberta’s oil sands production, a major export to the U.S., is generally considered compliant when it adheres to these origin rules. 

Given how attractive many Canadian oil sands are trading right now, it’s only a matter of time before Buffett strikes. 

Still looking to beat Uncle Warren at his own game?

This is the way.

P.S. Trump’s tariff war has unleashed a rare opportunity for investors to turn market chaos into massive gains. The reshoring revolution sparked by these tariffs is reshaping industries — and FIVE companies are perfectly positioned to skyrocket. Learn more here.