Trump Vs. The World: The Great Tariff Tango in 2025

T-minus two days until the Trump Tariff Apocalypse, and the air is thick with the stench of impending chaos. 

The clock ticks down to midnight on February 1, 2025, and the United States is poised to unleash a barrage of tariffs on our overly-friendly neighbors to the north.

But let’s be real, folks — this isn’t about friendship. This is about oil, power, and the kind of geopolitical brinkmanship that makes our heart race like a meth-fueled cheetah.

I told you last month that slapping a 25% tariff on Canadian oil would be like lighting a fuse on a powder keg of bad decisions. I’ll be the first to confess that even President Trump might not have the bluster to follow-through with this one, no matter how much he wants to strong-arm Trudeau into submission. 

But here’s the kicker: Trudeau’s out, and Canada’s political future is a swirling maelstrom of uncertainty. Why would Trudeau flinch on his way out the door? He’s got nothing to lose at this point.

And when the clock hits zero my friends, the shit is going to hit the fan in ways that even the most jaded among us can’t fully comprehend.

The Fate of Oil Prices in 2025: A Heavy Crude Nightmare

Let’s talk about oil for a minute. Not just any oil, but the thick, viscous, tar-like sludge that flows (very, very slowly) from the bituminous sands of Alberta. 

This isn’t the light, sweet crude that we’ve become accustomed to from the shale boom. No, this is the heavy, sulfur-laden stuff that U.S. refineries along the Gulf of Mexi — I mean, America — have been guzzling like a wino on a bender. 

Just in case anyone needs a reminder of how crucial Canadian crude is to U.S. refineries, there’s a few things to consider. Canada’s heavy oil from Alberta — all 160 billion barrels of it — is the kind of crude we crave. That’s why the Keystone Pipeline XL expansion was such an important project. 

Remember, not all crude is created equal. 

Each grade of crude oil, from Brent to West Texas Intermediate to Western Canadian Select, no matter where in the world it’s extracted, is primarily measured by its API Gravity. Think of it as a way for us to tell how heavy or light a petroleum liquid is compared to water. The heavier it is, the more it’ll sink like a stone chucked into a creek. 

And here’s the kicker: we’ve spent billions gearing a lot of our refineries toward processing heavy oil. 

You see, the Permian Basin’s light, sweet crude is great for making stuff like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. However, our Gulf refineries were tooled for the heavy stuff. 

And where do we get most of that heavy crude? Canada. 

Go ahead and take a look for yourself how our thirst for Canadian crude has risen over the last few decades:

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The only other source nearby for this heavy grade of crude oil is in Venezuela, whose oil is a dumpster fire of corruption and mismanagement. So unless Trump wants to cozy up to Maduro (spoiler alert: he doesn’t), it’s a safe bet we’re sticking with Canada.

Now you see why this would be a problem when we smack tariffs on our biggest supplier of heavy oil.  

But we’re not the only ones watching Canadian oil stocks with a hungry eye. 

Even without this tariff mess, you’ll find some of the best valuations up in the Canadian oil patch, which means any panic-selling would open a massive window of opportunity to pick up those companies at a discount. 

Canada’s oil exports to the U.S. are worth a staggering $158.5 billion a year. That’s not chump change, folks. That’s the kind of money that makes even Warren Buffett sit up and take notice — and he’s sitting on a mountain of cash to the tune of $325.2 billion; I think he's about to go shopping. 

And with tariffs looming, the Canadian oil patch is looking like a fire sale waiting to happen. Panic-selling? More like panic-buying for those with the guts to dive in.

This is one story you really need to check out for yourself.