The High Stakes Poker Played With Trump’s Tariffs

Somewhere out there in the bowels of some godforsaken political hellhole, there’s a small, dark, dimly lit backroom. The air is thick with cigar smoke, the kind that clings to your clothes and makes your eyes water. 

In the center of the room sits a poker table, littered with chips and empty glasses. Around it, three players are locked in a heated battle, their faces tense, their hands trembling with the weight of the stakes.  

This isn’t just any poker game. This is the Great Tariff Tango of 2025, a geopolitical showdown that’s been brewing for months. 

At the table sits President Donald Trump, his trademark smirk plastered across his face like a bad tattoo. Across from him is Justin Trudeau, Canada’s soon-to-be-ex-Prime Minister, looking like a man who’s just realized he’s been playing with his cards backwards. 

And then there’s Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s newly elected president, who already folded her hand before the flop and is now watching the action from the sidelines, nursing a tequila and wondering how it all went wrong.  

The tension in the room is so thick you could cut through it with a spoon — trust me, it’ll hurt more.  

On February 1, 2025, the rumors and speculation finally came to rest. President Trump, ever the showman, dropped his cards on the table: a 25% tariff on Mexican imports and a slightly softer 15% tariff on Canadian energy. 

The crowd gasped. The markets trembled. And the players at the table leaned in, their eyes narrowing as they tried to read each other’s hands.  

Holding a low pair, Mexico’s President Sheinbaum was quick to fold after the flop. She knew she was outmatched and threw in her chips, calling it a day. 

But Canada? Canada’s hand is stronger than anyone realizes. Even though President Trump is all smiles sitting on a Full House, Prime Minister Trudeau is holding a Four-of-a-Kind. If he played his cards right, Canada would walk away with the pot. 

The problem is, I don’t think Trudeau has looked at his cards yet.

If you want to see the poor position Mexico was in during this tariff war, just think of how quickly they gave in to what President Trump was after. Yesterday, Mexico’s president announced that 10,000 troops were heading to the border in exchange for a one-month pause on tariffs. 

Mexico folded because they had no choice. But Canada? Canada’s a different beast altogether.  

You see, Mexico’s largest import from the U.S. are our petroleum products. Forget about the 453,000 barrels per day that we import from Mexico. 

All we do is simply refine that crude, then turnaround and sell it right back to them at a premium — to the tune of 1.2 million barrels of petroleum products every day that was worth more $60 billion in 2022. 

Getting Canada to lay its hand down may be a little trickier, especially if they truly recognize the cards they’re holding. Remember, that heavy crude from the oil sands is a key component to the bulk of our refining capacity, particularly along the Gulf Coast. 

But here’s the twist: while the tariff is bad news for U.S. refiners (who now have to pay more for Canadian crude), it’s a potential windfall for Canadian oil companies. 

Why? Because Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, is sitting on a treasure trove of untapped resources. In a similar way to Europe realizing that they are no longer shackled to Russian gas thanks to U.S. LNG, Canadian oil companies will be turning their eyes westward across the Pacific. 

Mark my words, if these tariffs are here to stay for the long-term — and I’ll remind you that President Trump has already threatened heavier tariffs if Canada doesn’t succumb to his demands — we’re going to start seeing more projects like the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project pop-up to tap into the growing Asian markets. 

With the U.S. market suddenly less attractive, Canadian producers are being forced to get creative. 

And here’s the thing about chaos: it creates opportunity. 

For those with the guts to see the big picture, Trump’s tariffs on Canadian oil are not just a political stunt — they’re a golden ticket; a chance to profit from one of the most misunderstood and undervalued sectors in the energy market: Canadian oil and gas.

However, Trump’s tariffs on Canadian oil are just one piece of a much larger puzzle. 

The global energy market is in flux, with shifting alliances, evolving technologies, and growing demand for more and more black gold. Even the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand to grow by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025, driven by emerging markets in Asia and the Middle East. 

And with OPEC+ (led by Saudi Arabia and Russia) keeping a tight lid on production, the stage is set for a supply crunch — and a potential price surge.  

That’s where Canada comes in with its vast reserves and growing export capacity, 

Canadian crude is uniquely positioned to fill the gap with Trump’s tariffs forcing Canadian producers to look beyond the U.S. The timing couldn’t be better.

This is one story you need to check out for yourself.