The Great Crude Reckoning 2025: Oil’s Fire Sale is On

Oil is getting crushed. 

The blood is spilling freely in the streets, and there’s an absolute fire sale going on right now in oil stocks. I couldn’t be happier, and so should you. 

Contrary to popular belief, there hasn’t been a single factor in the crude reckoning we’re seeing in oil prices. The pressure that has built up over the last few weeks has sent WTI prices down nearly 15% since its run to nearly $80 per barrel in mid-January. 

Where does one even begin in trying to break things down?

Some might think we’d start with the 25% tariffs levied against Canada, which include the nearly 5 million barrels per day we rely on everyday. The heavy crude our refiners crave from the Alberta oil patch has become an invaluable source of supply for us, and we even recently talked about why tariffs are creating a huge buying opportunity for certain oversold Canadian oil stocks. 

But truth be told, I’m not as concerned about those Canadian oil tariffs, there are bigger concerns on the horizon. 

I’m more worried about the overzealousness regarding U.S. domestic production. 

The Great Crude Reckoning of 2025

Two nights ago, we heard the three most horrifying words in the U.S. energy sector. It came just twenty minutes into President Trump’s address to Congress:

“As you’ve heard me say many times, we have more liquid gold under our feet than any nation on earth, by far. And now I’ve fully authorized the most talented team ever assembled to go and get it. It’s called drill, baby, drill.”

Drill, baby, drill. 

Let’s just push aside the fact that we don’t have more crude underground than any other nation on earth. But that’s fine, just chalk it up to a little exuberance for the oil and gas industry on the behalf of our Commander-and-Chief. 

For the record, our proven oil reserves stood at 48.3 billion barrels at the end of 2022 — good enough to crack the top ten in the world, yet far fewer barrels than powerhouse producers like the Saudis, Canada, and even Venezuela. However, I don’t care how many barrels you have underground if you can’t extract them economically (I’m staring right at you, Venezuela). 

President Trump has a big problem on his hands right now, an energy catch-22, if you will. 

If his priority is to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel, there’s no question in my mind that he would decimate drilling activity inside the United States more than it has been over the last few years. 

A quick glance at the latest Baker Hughes rig count shows that there are 134 fewer rigs drilling for oil and gas in the United States than there were a year ago. Yes, a lot of this decline can be attributed to a hostile Biden administration, but it’s hard for us to believe we’ll see activity tick up during a period of low prices. 

Do you really think there’s an incentive for drillers to put more rigs in the field if prices fall to their lowest point in two years? Of course not. 

But here’s the catch…

Trump’s Energy Secretary isn’t an idiot. He understands the situation just as well as anyone, and what it’ll take to continue growing our domestic oil production. 

Oil’s Fire Sale: The Oil Stocks I’m Buying Today

If one thing has become clear over the last several years, it’s that the average American investor has no clue about the intricacies of U.S. oil output. If they did, they would know that boosting production isn’t about how fast you can drill more wells, but rather how efficiently you can extract your crude. 

Again, the name of the game when it comes to oil drilling in our tight oil plays is quality, not quantity. That has been the trend for years as our domestic rig count continued to decline. 

The shift from a debt-fueled drilling frenzy a decade ago to implementing improved drilling and completion techniques has been the key. 

And the fire sale taking place in the wake of President Trump’s push for $50/barrel oil can’t be ignored — that’s why we should be smiling right now, because he’s opening up a huge window of opportunity for us. 

The bottom may not be in just yet as the media embraces this supply-side bearishness for oil prices, especially as we’re on the cusp of OPEC+ turning its spigots back on. 

But when that corner does turn and the bottom sets in, it won’t be the companies making a mad drilling dash that should grab your attention. 

Rather, it’s the oil stocks that have proven they can both lower the time and cost it takes to drill their wells while at the same time boosting productivity — those are the hidden gems you’ll find inside the U.S. oil industry today.

In fact, let me show you one perfect example right here… go ahead and take a look for yourself.