Just 75 years ago, a group of Big Oil execs stood at the top of a sand dune and said, “This is ours.”
One of the seven sisters — Standard Oil of California — had already struck oil a year prior in Bahrain.
So you can bet that when their gaze panned the desert in front of them, they didn’t see a barren landscape. Rumor has it one geologist even turned his head and smiled before asking, “Does it smell like money to you?”
You can see why…
The reason for their excitement was clear: They had just signed a 75-year oil concession with the emirates, and their oil companies were going to milk every last drop of crude oil out of the Middle East… or so they thought.
Crude Freedom
After a long wait that lasted three-quarters of a century, the fate of the Abu Dhabi oil patch is finally back in the hands of the UAE. More than a few employees of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) had January 11, 2014 circled in their calendars.
That was the day the concession deal expired, and the ADNOC took full control of the UAE’s largest oil fields.
It also meant that four of the world’s largest publicly traded oil companies were left squirming.
We saw a few of the consequences recently, too.
Total’s second-quarter profits dropped 12%, and while some of that was due to declining production in other areas, a portion was attributable to losing its Abu Dhabi onshore concession. British Petroleum’s output dropped by 6% during the last quarter as well.
But it turns out partnering with Big Oil for 75 years can leave a sour taste in one’s mouth. About three months ago, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) was given a concession by the UAE to help develop several of its onshore and offshore fields in Abu Dhabi.
And although it took 75 years for the UAE to unfetter itself from the super-majors, perhaps a better question is whether or not some of the major players involved weren’t also relieved.
Actually, I can think of one happy driller right way…
Escape from Abu Dhabi
Similar to the other partners that lost their stakes in the Abu Dhabi fields, ExxonMobil recorded a 5.6% year-over-year production decline during the first half of 2014.
If we exclude the Abu Dhabi concession, however, production only declined by 2.6%.
But rather than ante up and bid on a new round of concessions in the Abu Dhabi fields, ExxonMobil actually declined.
I don’t always give Big Oil credit for making a good move like this (I may even deny it later on), but it’s not really a surprise that ExxonMobil is changing up its strategy.
Exxon’s Oil Exodus
I can almost hear widows and orphans around the world collectively rejoicing this move, and it should be clear by now what Rex has up his sleeves.
Take a closer look at the company’s production results during the second half of the year, and you’ll find that ExxonMobil’s oil output didn’t decline everywhere…
Below, you can see a detailed breakdown of the company’s production:
Click Table to Enlarge
Helping to offset the loss of the Abu Dhabi concession during the first half of the year has been the 8.2% increase in North American production.
In fact, it was only a month after the concession ended that ExxonMobil announced it had expanded its presence in the Permian Basin to 1.5 million gross acres.
But it’s even more important for us to read between the lines. In that agreement with Endeavor Energy Resources, XTO Energy (Exxon’s onshore subsidiary) gained appropriately 34,000 gross acres in one of the biggest shale plays in the United States: the Wolfcamp formation.
And just to give you an idea of how aggressive this move is, consider that both Endeavor and XTO Energy were among the top operators in the Permian Basin in 2012:
Click Chart to Enlarge
But is bigger really better?
In short: no.
Look, we both know that too many investors get starstruck by names like ExxonMobil.
Many of my long-time readers know exactly how much these massive oil companies have underperformed compared to the small, up-and-coming drillers that are still flying under everyone’s radar.
What’s more is that there are still a number of these tiny gems operating in the West Texas oil patch as we speak. Stay tuned, because I’ll soon give you access to the full details behind one such Texas driller that is furiously drilling into the most profitable parts of the Permian Basin.
Until next time,
Keith Kohl
Check us out on YouTube!A true insider in the technology and energy markets, Keith’s research has helped everyday investors capitalize from the rapid adoption of new technology trends and energy transitions. Keith connects with hundreds of thousands of readers as the Managing Editor of Energy & Capital, as well as the investment director of Angel Publishing’s Energy Investor and Technology and Opportunity.
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