Lies, Oil Drilling, and Manipulation: There WILL Be Consequences

November 8, 2022, cannot come soon enough. 

Perhaps it’s a bit of wishful thinking, but once the midterm elections are finally behind us, there’s a small chance that the politicking will calm down for a brief while.

One can only hope.

Turning the global oil markets into a political game full to the brim with bluffing, calling, and positioning is dangerous. 

Take a closer look at what’s going on with oil, and you'll see what’s really happening. 

Don’t believe me? 

The tough rhetoric coming out of the White House put the blame for high oil prices squarely on the head of Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+, due to its slashing oil output by 2 million barrels per day. 

But the president did more than simply blame Saudi Arabia for its decision to cut output — he outright threatened it:

There’s going to be some consequences for what they’ve done with Russia… I’m not going to get into what I’d consider and what I have in mind. But there will be — there will be consequences.

I guess the Saudis might have to just buy their weapons from Russia and China.

There’s one little part to this row between the Biden administration and the Saudis that is fascinating to me.

It seems as if nobody in the White House thought to mention that OPEC+’s cut of 2 million barrels per day isn’t exactly what people think it is. 

The true cut was around 1 million barrels per day, with the rest being barrels from a quota that OPEC members weren’t able to reach. 

It was a juicy peek behind the mysterious curtain of OPEC production, and it showed us that some members simply cannot raise output right now. 

But instead of seeing this cut for what it was, the U.S. went on the attack, all but pushing the Saudis into Russia’s arms. 

If you come at the king, you'd best not miss.

Unfortunately, President Biden whiffed hard, but here’s why it’s good news for your portfolio… 

Lies, Drilling, and Manipulation

We’ve been a little skeptical of the data coming out of the EIA ever since it reported that oil demand this summer was less than it was at the height of the COVID pandemic in the summer of 2020.

Don’t get me wrong — I’m not saying the EIA is lying to us, but something seems off.

Truth is, things have not gotten much better with the end of the summer driving season. 

This week, we saw a rather large build in U.S. crude oil inventories of 7 million barrels per day. What most investors don’t realize is that we also released a massive amount of crude from the SPR, which naturally would pump up the inventory levels. 

Yet it’s not just the EIA’s artificially inflated storage numbers that are a concern. 

I’ve often told you that EIA reports were made to be revised.

Well, the truth is that the supply/demand fundamentals are far, far tighter than most people believe. 

This week, the EIA also announced that it wasn’t as bullish on U.S. oil production as it first thought and going forward has revised its growth projections downward. 

Now, the EIA believes U.S. oil output will grow by 610,000 barrels per day in 2023, which is much lower than the 1.05 million-barrels-per-day growth that it was forecasting back in June. 

Such a sharp downward revision doesn’t bode well for lower crude prices this winter. 

And then we have the case of the disappearing DUCs to consider. 

A DUC is simply an oil or gas well that hasn’t been completed yet. Typically, a company will drill a well and then wait for a better opportunity to start pumping oil out of it.

Back in July 2019, there were 8,092 DUCs in the seven-largest tight oil and gas plays in the U.S. 

When the pandemic struck and caused oil prices to crash, it forced a lot of E&P companies to slash spending.

By July 2022, there were only 4,299 DUCs. In some areas like the Permian Basin, the decline has been quite substantial.

What does this mean? 

Well, if we have any hope of preventing triple-digit oil prices during a time when oil prices are seasonally at their lowest, the U.S. is going to have to start drilling a lot more in the coming weeks and months. 

Believe me, I understand it’s not easy to be bullish when the investment herd is screaming bloody murder. 

But close your eyes for a moment and picture where we’ll be six months from now. 

The midterms will be over, but the consequences of Saudi Arabia choosing Russia’s side over ours means that President Biden won’t be able to stop his SPR sales into the market, especially if he’s trying to save face in the public eye. 

He’ll be forced to incentivize U.S. oil companies and hopefully entice them to start drilling again. 

Now open your eyes.

Tell me, do you think there are still some hidden oil gems buried in today’s bearish market? 

If you answered yes, I implore you to take a few moments out of your day and check out this investment presentation. Inside, I’ll show you a small group of U.S. oil stocks that are still flying under Wall Street’s radar. 

Until next time,

Keith Kohl

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A true insider in the technology and energy markets, Keith’s research has helped everyday investors capitalize from the rapid adoption of new technology trends and energy transitions. Keith connects with hundreds of thousands of readers as the Managing Editor of Energy & Capital, as well as the investment director of Angel Publishing’s Energy Investor and Technology and Opportunity.

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