If You’re Not Buying Oil Stocks Right Now, Then You Hate Money.

If you’re NOT buying oil stocks right now, then you hate money. 

Do you see oil’s disconnect from reality? It’s right there in front of us, screaming helplessly into the void. I’d bet that most of the investment herd doesn’t see the bullish case for oil heading into the 2025 summer driving season. 

Why should they? The narrative being spun throughout the media is utterly frightening to hear; even our own Energy Secretary should feel a little ashamed touting the same rhetoric recently. 

During his Middle East tour, Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed he wasn’t concerned about weak oil prices. 

What was said? Oh yeah, it was that the U.S. shale industry would survive and thrive. 

As a former oil exec, he should know better. 

To be fair, he’s in a bit of a tough position between a rock and a hard place. Not giving his full-throated support to President Trump’s ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ message would put him at risk of getting on the wrong side of the president — a place that nobody wants to be, or else suffer his wrath. 

But to suggest that the U.S. E&P sector would thrive with crude prices below $60 per barrel is just disrespectful to reality. 

And we’re already starting to see the cracks emerge…

I mentioned last week that the Dallas Fed sounded the alarm over cheap oil prices threatening drilling activity. 

Well, the Kansas City Fed reiterated that sentiment recently after releasing its own energy survey. They received similar results that suggested WTI prices needed to be at $65 per barrel to be profitable. As I write this now, WTI crude is fighting to reach $62 per barrel — well below that profitability threshold. 

Every day that crude prices remain this low, we become more bullish. 

And at some point, something will have to give. 

You see, in order for President Trump’s plan to go off without a hitch — that is, a huge surge in drilling activity — prices need to rally far higher than $65 per barrel. According to that same energy survey, E&P firms would need crude to trade for upwards of $85 per barrel to experience a significant drilling boom. 

Like I said, however, we’re already seeing cracks in the damn…

Looking at the latest Baker Hughes rig count, we saw another sharp plunge in the number of rigs actively drilling for crude oil. For the record, the seven rigs we lost was the largest drop since last June.

Make no mistake, this trend WILL continue if the current narrative continues to weaken oil prices. 

The thing is, supply growth may not be as rosy as projections are making it out to be. On the OECD supply side of the fence, those same U.S. drillers that are idling rigs are the ones expected to bear the brunt of global supply growth in 2025. 

The return of OPEC+ barrels to the market could turn ugly. Remember, they’re not just going to dump 2.2 million barrels per day of extra supply onto the market all at once; the unwinding of OPEC+’s cuts is going to come gradually, and the group is more than willing to pause, or even reverse, any production adjustments to support market stability. 

Let’s not forget those pesky little hiccups that can occur, too. Venezuela’s PDVSA shut out of Chevron last week from loading and exporting the country’s crude oil was a natural response to the tariffs that President Trump placed on anyone buying Venezuelan crude. 

That’s roughly 250,000 barrels per day that Chevron won’t be shipping to customers thanks to the cancellations. Yet, Chevron only had another six weeks from the U.S. Treasury Department to unwind its operations in Venezuela anyway. 

There’s only one winner in that scenario, too. Pushing out Venezuelan crude from U.S. refineries along the Gulf Coast means there’s only one steady source we can turn to for that heavy oil — and we’re not the only ones looking to take advantage of it.

If you’re looking a little closer to home, things get a little more complicated — especially when the entire market is bearish on oil prices. 

Let’s be clear: Their loss is our opportunity. 

The most important thing to recognize is that it’s not about which oil stocks are drilling the most; those days are long gone.

Today, it’s all about which companies are still able to grow production without having to put more rigs into the field. 

And the good news is that we’ve already identified those off-the-radar investment gems driving output through next-gen drilling technologies. 

Not sure where to start your search?

Well, go ahead and check this one out to see for yourself.