Predictions for 2022
The market has been pretty choppy over the last few months, and it's been shaking out the weak hands. But all in all, 2021 has been a good year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 16% year to date, our Bull and Bust Report closed portfolio is up 37.81%, and our open portfolio is up 30.71%.
In my Launchpad Trader service, the portfolio has averaged 35.83% in closed positions and 28.75% in the positions that are still open. However, since we hold for a much shorter period, it should be mentioned that our cumulative portfolio is up 1,755% in the closed and 170% in the open.
That’s not too shabby.
It seems that the bears are out in force at the end of 2021 as they fearfully look at high valuation ratios and the Federal Reserve pulling away the proverbial punch bowl.
But still, the bulls can point at the fat part of the millennial generation hitting their peak earning years coupled with strong demand in housing and a huge need to fill jobs.
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Housing demand is strong, and home equity as a percentage of mortgage debt has never been higher. We won’t have a repeat of the housing crash of 2008 but, as usual, the stock market in 2022 will climb a wall of worry.
Looking into my crystal ball, here's what I think I see through the clouds:
- 2022 will be the year that blockchain starts to become workable. Games, sports gambling, and financials will make huge strides forward. Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) and POSaBIT (OTCMKTS: POSAF) will be big stock winners.
- The crypto space will rotate from the old to the new. Alt-coins with niche functions and strong backing will be the winners, and Bitcoin and Ethereum will be the losers.
- The price of housing will continue to go up. Demographics indicate that the huge bulge in millennials hitting their prime nesting years means demand for housing will remain strong. Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) and Lennar (NYSE: LEN) will beat the market.
- COVID will finally burn itself out by late winter/early spring. The ruling class will attempt to keep it alive until the midterms in November. Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) will underperform.
- Tourism stocks that don’t rely on cheap oil will benefit in rebound 2.0 — buy hotels, not airlines.
- Queen Elizabeth of England will die. The new king Charles' farcical bumbling coupled with the other twits around the throne will renew calls for the abolishment of the monarchy. This will lead to a buying opportunity on the LSE.
- You will get COVID and not bother getting tested.
- Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) will continue to beat the market.
- China’s continued crackdown on its best and brightest will lead to a famous defector. Companies will continue to move factories back to the United States to shorten supply chains and be closer to cheap energy.
- Oil and gas services like Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) will soar as fracking gets back on track.
- Natural gas exporters will see a demand spike/share price surge in February as Europe gets hit with the full force of its absurd energy policies. Share prices will slide in the spring.
- Automobiles will continue to be in short supply, and ordering new cars from the factory and waiting a few months for delivery will become the norm.
- Powerboats and RVs will flood the market as the price of upkeep and gasoline, as well as rising interest rates, force 2020 COVID buyers to reconsider their choices.
- Coal demand in China will continue to increase, counteracting the reduction of coal power elsewhere.
- The Federal Reserve will hike rates three times.
- This will cause a two-month sell-off of speculative stocks.
- Dividend and defensive stocks will outperform.
- The Baltimore Orioles will lose 101 games.
Here’s to a happy and prosperous new year to you and yours,
Christian DeHaemer Since 1995, Christian DeHaemer has specialized in frontier market opportunities. He has traveled extensively and invested in places as varied as Cuba, Mongolia, and Kenya. Chris believes the best way to make money is to get there first with the most. Christian is the founder of Bull and Bust Report and an editor at Energy and Capital. For more on Christian, see his editor's page.
Since 1995, Christian DeHaemer has specialized in frontier market opportunities. He has traveled extensively and invested in places as varied as Cuba, Mongolia, and Kenya. Chris believes the best way to make money is to get there first with the most. Christian is the founder of Bull and Bust Report and an editor at Energy and Capital. For more on Christian, see his editor's page.
Energy Demand will Increase 58% Over the Next 25 Years
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