Analysts predict the average oil price in 2008 will be $74.43 a barrel.
Do you remember being told this back in November?
How about two months prior, when Goldman Sachs explained how oil prices would average $85 a barrel in 2008? By December 2007, Goldman Sachs raised their price target by $10 a barrel. They even mentioned that oil could reach up to $105 a barrel in a year.
Try to remember what it was like paying $105 a barrel for light sweet Texan crude. I would suggest holding on to that memory. We may never see oil that low, ever again.
Today, Goldman Sachs has decided to come out with a new prediction. This time, however, Goldman analysts turned their estimates up a notch, suggesting that oil prices might rise between $150 and $200 a barrel within 24 months.
Don't worry, the analysts were quick to cover their tracks, "...though predicting the ultimate peak in oil prices as well as the remaining duration of the up-cycle remains a major uncertainty." Well, at least they appear fairly confident that oil's ride isn't over.
Considering that oil prices have increased by about 76% over the last nine months, a similar rise in 2008 (and during the peak summer driving season, I'd like to add) would put oil prices around $214 by next January!
The story hasn't changed. Tighter supplies, growing demand in China, India and the Middle East have helped push prices. Producers are having trouble finding new reserves. Now tack on the speculators, the geopolitical violence, potential weather volatility and the U.S. dollar declining. Can you really see oil falling below $105 a barrel in 2008?
I hate tossing you the doom and gloom without some kind of hope for investors. Brazil has made two nice discoveries lately, but imagine how much it will cost to extract that oil. The layer of salt they need to drill through is a mile thick!
Bakken Oil Stocks
I'm pretty sure you've heard about the 25,000 square miles in Montana, North Dakota, Manitoba and Saskatchewan that makes up the Bakken formation. I know for a fact that a majority of my readers have had tremendous success after investing in some of our favorite Bakken producers.
We've been over the latest U.S. Geological survey that reported the Bakken holds up to 4.3 billion barrels of recoverable oil. After the report was published, your concern wasn't whether there was oil in the formation or not.
We know there's a lot of oil there.
Instead, you should be focusing on who the players are... on the best Bakkan stocks for your money. Just because a company has been able to snatch up some land in the Bakken doesn't make them worth your time and money. With all the attention the Bakken has been receiving lately, not everyone can come out on top.
Let's face it, dear reader, it's time to stop talking and start drilling.
Two Ways to Play Bakken Oil Stocks
Rather than concentrating on companies that are getting into the action late, I'd focus on a few solid companies that are aggressively going after the Bakken oil.
Just take a look at Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR). The company has raised its capital expenditures from $616 million to $783 million. Care to take a wild guess on where most of that money is going?
In order to extract the crude from the Bakken, companies have to utilize horizontal drilling techniques, which can become quite expensive. Remember, the USGS report only took into account the oil that can be recovered with current drilling technology. Rest assured, that technology will continue improving as oil prices keep climbing.
But no matter how bullish you are on the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Montana, don't forget that the U.S. side is just half the story. The second best way for investors to get in on the action is in Saskatchewan.
I know the most of my readers think of Alberta whenever I mention a Canadian oil rush. That's understandable. This Friday, however, I'm going to show you why some oil sands companies are beginning to move into the Bakken formation.
Don't be surprised when you recognize a few of the players dipping into the light oil pools in Saskatchewan.
Until next time,
Keith Kohl




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